Good morning my friends. This week I take a look at the week gone by in Red Sox baseball. I will talk about Brayan Bello’s extension, the injury to offseason pickup Lucas Giolito and what if anything the Sox will do in the immediate future to deal with the issue. Then, while I’m at it, look at some other injuries with the squad in Florida.
It’s a rainy, windy Sunday morning here in southern Maine, and I am three cups in already! Grab your favorite mug, filled with coffee as you like it, a comfortable seat and join me as I explain my thoughts on the week.
Bello Extension
The Red Sox are in the Dominican Republic this weekend. They have secured a public relations win by announcing that they are going to extend their talented young starter Brayan Bello in a deal worth $55 million. Bello has worked hard to get to where he is and has been under the tutelage of none other than Pedro Martinez for the last two off seasons perfecting his craft.
Fans should be excited for Bello, who signed with Sox for $28,000 as a teenager from the town of Samana in the Dominican Republic. He will turn 25 in July and this will lock him up during his pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons.
According to multiple published sources the deal includes a $1 million signing bonus. Over the course of the contract he will be paid $1 million per year in 2024 and 2025, $2.5 million in 2026, $6 million in 2027, $8.5 million in 2028 and $19 million in 2029. The deal also includes a $21 million club option in 2030. There are also rumored to be other “kickers” in the deal for All-Star Game selections and potential Cy Young award voting. This is a definite win-win for both Bello and the team. Bello gets a degree of financial security and the team gets a young, home grown starter under contract at a reasonable price up to age 30 and possibly age 31.
As this team begins to rebuild a sustainable pitching pipeline, Bello will serve as the cornerstone of the movement. It is also the first in what should be several types of these deals with younger players. The first, should be his current teammate Tristan Casas, who has been quoted to have turned down the Sox first extension offer. Hopefully, that deal gets done sometime this spring. Given the depth of the farm system and if the players indeed perform well, these kinds of deals should be common occurrences in the next few years for the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis and possibly even Nick Yorke and Wilyer Abreau. It is a successful model that the Braves have embraced and have been successful in building a consistent contending team.
Well done Red Sox!
Lucas Giolito Injury
Baseball is a game of surprises and challenges. The Sox signed Lucas Giolito to do one thing, eat innings. He has been a workhorse throughout his career and not only ate innings but was durable in the process. That luck just ran out!
This week it was reported that after some tightness in his last spring training start he felt some tightness and discomfort in his pitching elbow. After extensive testing and examination it appears that Giolito has a partially torn UCL and a flexor strain. The solution to the injury is looking more and more like the 29 year old undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair the damage to his elbow. While the team and the player have scheduled a second opinion/review of the injury early this coming week, consensus is that he will most likely have to undergo the procedure.
If, he has the surgery soon, he should be able to join the team next year. The longer the wait the further his potential return is pushed back. Given the investment the team made in him with a $19 million contract for 2024 with a player option opt out for the 2025 season, there is much to be gained by both parties to begin the healing process. Stay tuned!
Now What???
Giolito was counted on to help fortify the starting rotation. While not a top of the line starter, he had shown flashes of excellence, but realistically, he was brought here to go deep into games and perhaps enjoy more success with a better offensive team than the ones he had played with recently in Cleveland. His sudden departure leaves a significant void in the rotation, and the question is now what to do about it.
Option 1 - Go with what you have
With the opening of the season 3-ish weeks away the team was already in the process of trying to determine who would occupy the 4 and 5 slots in the rotation. With the injury to Giolito the new rotation probably is going to be: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and either Whitlock or Winckowski. Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski are each trying to prove they belong in the rotation. Each has a hurdle to get over to advance as a starting pitcher, so nothing has truly cemented as a certain outcome at this point. There is the possibility that Justin Slaten, the Rule 5 player that the Sox acquired from the Mets could be a spot starter, as well as a turn style of options coming from Worcester. While I think the six pitchers mentioned can perform satisfactorily, the depth factor has been thinned dramatically and the situation is only slightly better than 2023.
Option 2 - Get a free agent pitcher
Either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery are not coming to Boston. Given the economic structure in place for the team and the almost reflexive desire to avoid long term deals with older pitchers, signings like these are virtually out of the question. So what are some other options?
Michael Lorenzen - I have been a fan of the team doing this all off season. His cost should be between $9-10 million and he can be another effective, innings eater at age 31 and is a right-hander.
Mike Clevinger - Another veteran who can pitch significant innings. He is two years older than Lorenzen and is also a right hander who will probably cost about the same.
Others who might be looked at with age in parenthesis: Julio Urías (27), Zack Greinke (40), Rich Hill (44) - mid season, Johnny Cueto (38), Noah Syndergaard (31), Jake Odorizzi (34). Of this group, I think they stay away from Urias due to the domestic violence issues in LA. Rich Hill would be a nice story. The rest would be basically a roll of the dice. The options are limited and the pickings are slim.
POTPP thinks that the Sox are going to go with what they have. If they are in it at the deadline, they may make a move for pitching.
Spring Training Injuries Tally
It’s time to check in on players who are injured and see when they could see action.
This just in….. Yesterday Chris Martin threw only 2 pitches of what was supposed to be a live BP session before leaving the mound and went to the clubhouse. It is reported that he suffered a groin injury (tightness). Preliminary reports indicate that it is a minor issue. Let’s hope it develop into something more serious! Coupled with Kenley Jansen’s injury, the back end of the bullpen suddenly is a bit messy.
Players currently in camp who are injured:
Liam Hendriks - Recovering from surgery - August return anticipated
Bryan Mata - Strained Hamstring - no definitive time for return
Vaughn Grissom - Strained groin - no definitive time for return
Tyler O’Neill - Left Calf tightness - day to day
Zack Kelly - Oblique injury - could see time on the IL at the beginning of the season
Kenley Jansen - “Lat” soreness - no definitive time for return