Spring - The end of "The winter of our discontent"!
POTPP Extra: Contracts, loyalty, opt-outs and secret decoder rings!
“Now is the winter of our discontent!”
With apologies to William Shakespeare and John Steinbeck, the arrival of spring marks the end of my own winter of discontent that is free agency for the past off season. I acknowledge that Red Sox fans are still pining for Jordan Montgomery and there are still other free agents looking for a home, but with Blake Snell off the market the season is effectively “over”.
This past offseason has been depressing, not only for Sox Nation, but for baseball fans in general. The narrative going into the offseason was that there were a number of “blue chip” players available for teams to add to make their teams significantly better. These included Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery. Four of these players are pitchers, two of those are coveted left-handed starters and talented players delivering quality offensive results, and finally the best player in the game. Going in, everyone knew that the cost would be high, there would be a line of teams positioning themselves to sign these prized possessions. So, what happened?
Half of the group got their deals done (Nola - November 19th, Ohtani - December 9th and Yamamoto December 21st) were completed by Christmas, had longer terms and high total dollar values, and the rest were completed in the last month after spring training was well underway (Bellinger - February 27th, Chapman - March 3rd, Snell - March 19th) had shorter terms and opt-outs.
The next question, why is there such a disparity? The answer is quite simple, agent representation. The early signers each had a different negotiator and were able to sign long (7-12 years) term deals for significant money. The rest are by Super-Agent Scott Boras. Let’s look at the first group:
Aaron Nola - (Agent: Paragon Sports International) 7 years / $172,000,000 contract. All of it is guaranteed at an annual average salary of $24,571,429.
Shohei Ohtani - (Agent: Nez Balelo) 10 year / $700,000,000 contract. All of it is guaranteed. The real deal here is that he is paid an annual salary of $2 million a season and the rest is deferred until after the term of the contract. That is a $46 million hit on payroll according to the CBT. Insert your own snide comment here.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - (Agent: Joel Wolfe of Wasserman) 12 year / $325,000,000 contract, all guaranteed. It includes a $50,000,000 signing bonus; some creative structured salary increases and two opt outs later in the term of the contract.
To be fair, “Dealer Dave” Dombrowski was in an enviable position where the team and the player both wanted to get the deal done. The Dodgers landed the top two prizes of the offseason with some legal and creative financing within the terms of the current CBA. One does have to wonder if Ohtani’s signing influenced his young protege Yamamoto with respect to his landing spot. The end result, deals that were amenable to the team and the player in terms of dollars and length.
Let’s now look at the other side of this coin. First, let’s recognize that good left-handed pitching is valued and comes at a price. Second, Scott Boras has negotiated some fairly hefty deals throughout his long career as an agent. He is the creator of the “mystery team” where leading contenders for a player’s services are close to an agreement and suddenly a new “mystery” team swoops in to raise the price. He is a master at promoting his clients and demonstrating their value both real and perceived. His ability to get players rewarded for past performance and continued future excellence has no match in the industry. He has been the definition of a living legend.
So why did the projected long term and high valued contracts not come to fruition for Bellinger, Chapman and Snell? With the exception of Yamamoto, Ohtani and Nola both have performed at a plus level and with some consistency in the recent past. Yamamoto, is viewed to be a potential plus performer on the mound, rivaling Ohtani as a pitcher and thus worth the investment and risk.
Bellinger, Chapman and Snell have not been as consistent over the recent past and that seems to have teams to less likely to pay for the spotty recent results over a long term and higher dollar value. Chapman had a down year in terms of power and production in 2023 in contrast to the previous 4 of the previous five seasons (Covid season excluded). Bellinger had a rebound year in 2023, but the question is whether this indicates a return to the player we saw from 2017-2019, or what he was in 2021 and 2022. Snell has won two Cy Young awards, one in each league, while this is quite impressive for the lefty, the four years in between each Cy Young were less than spectacular, so what kind of pitcher you are signing? The one that is brilliant or the one that can surrender a lot of walks, is inconsistent with his control, and does not go very deep into games? Add to this, San Diego made the pitcher a qualifying offer, which has draft pick capital ramifications, which also added risk to any transaction.
The common thread here is consistency or more succinctly, a lack of it. Why did an agent who generally leaves no penny on any table suddenly have to shift gears to get his clients signed and for decent money?
Did he overestimate the player value in this market or, worse, fail to see a noticeable shift in what is important to teams in the third decade of the 21st century?
Is he a genius, who is flexible and gives his clients a chance for a bigger pay day down the line?
Maybe the answer is a little bit of both. First, let me say I don’t think that owners are “colluding” to protect themselves from themselves or punishing Boras for any past transgressions. As noted earlier, his class of free agents is a bit flawed and lacked premium status. He may have presumed that the usual give and take that has been the norm would continue and that he would be able to retain the upper hand in negotiations. His adjustments to the market shift were to add player-friendly Opt-Outs and Options, large signing bonuses, and keep the maximum term of three years if fully executed.
One thing that is certain, it has shifted the burden to the player to excel in the short term in order to reap the benefits of a lucrative long-term contract. For the Cubs and the Giants, it means that they get a player who will be focused on giving his best in order to take another bite at the free agency apple. It avoids long term, expensive and often cumbersome and difficult contracts that can hamstring a team as the age of the contract begins to approach term. Players bet on themselves all the time…. right?
The Giants are trying to level up to meet the challenges of their primary rival in the division, the Dodgers, who had a spectacular off season as noted above. They have finished second to obtaining the services of quality free agents in recent off seasons, most notably the services of one Aaron Judge. They need to be competitive, and pitching is the fastest way to get there along with Chapman at third base.
The Cubs are in the middle of a rebuild. They need a cornerstone player to help the younger players strive to do better. They are also looking to recapture a fanbase that is longing for another World Series and to make the team relevant in their division. Bellinger ticks off those boxes and a few more.
In theory these things are good for the player and the team. Both entities have the ability to reap the rewards of success. Sounds good … right? Well, what about the average baseball fan? Are we now required to purchase a secret decoder ring instead of a hot dog at the game? How are fans made whole in this new dynamic?
There’s an old saying…. “You can’t tell the players without a program.” This is the exact dilemma baseball fans are facing! There is no loyalty, it has been replaced by self-interest on both the owners and players’ behalf.
Instead of a team, the fan is left to assume that the players on the field are a glorified mercenary group collected to play the national pastime. One of the things that ties fans to their team is a feeling of commitment by both parties, the fan will support the player in return for the player actions being team first. This dynamic is one of the simplest and oldest methods of attachment for any fan to their team. Is it a simplistic view of fandom? Yes. If we are honest with ourselves, is this what we expect from our team, owners and players? For sure…. Isn’t that why we watch our favorite game?
As for POTPP, in the meantime, I’ll watch, listen, write and talk about my favorite sport! Red Sox open in Seattle next week. I’ll be up late taking in every pitch!
The winter of my discontent is now but a painful memory, spring is here and the only thing I really want to hear is Play Ball!!!
Well written article George!